Monday, January 07, 2008

Obamarama: New Hampshire edition

Via TPM Election Central, it looks like Obama's running away with NH. Zogby checks in today with a 10-point Obama lead after only giving Clinton a 2-point one just 2 days ago. According to Zogby:
As in the closing days in Iowa, Clinton is slowly losing her support among women (she leads 37% to 33%), Democrats (Obama leads 36% to 32%), and Liberals (Obama leads 34% to 32%). Obama leads among Independents (47% to 22%), men (45% to 21% for Edwards and 18% for Clinton), and 18-29 year olds (47% to 22%). Obama also leads Clinton among all voters under age 65, Moderates (by a 45% to 25% margin), and among voters in union households (40% to 22%).

Ouch. Clinton is losing or has lost her lead among Democrats and Independents, Liberals and Moderates, and men and women? I think we can safely say at this point that Obama's going to win big in NH, giving him even bigger 'Mo (if that's even possible) going into NV and SC.

SC, as I'm sure we'll hear plenty after Tuesday, is going to be an interesting test for the candidates as it's the first majority African-American state up for grabs, and they've so far been a lot more cautious about Obamarama than most, and Clinton's lead there has looked rocksteady for months. Check out this fantastic post from Shanikka on dKos for reasons why.

Though it is worth mentioning that, in SC as in NH, the game changed after Iowa.

It's kind of hard to see Clinton recovering from a blowout loss in New Hampshire, though admittedly if there's any candidate who can do it, it's her. Going 0 for 3 after South Carolina, though? The only demographics Clinton appears still able to claim a purchase on are the old and African Americans, and SC will be the first big measurement of the latter. We all know how strong the Clintons' ties have been to the African American community since Bill's presidency, so SC's been something of a firewall for Hillary all this time. Her campaign's in this primary for the long haul, but as far as her chance at the nomination goes, she'll be on the ropes after NH, and Obama would probably deliver the knockout punch with a win in SC.

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