Thursday, January 03, 2008


For what it's worth, I find it very unlikely that Richardson and Biden are sending their support to Obama, even though that's the rumor at the moment. Supposedly, conventional wisdom is also congealing around the most likely final result of:
I'll certainly take it, though I would certainly be surprised at a 3rd place finish for Clinton.

UPDATE: I'll be damned, it turned out exactly that way. Expect a drop-off in support for Clinton going into NH. Dunno how much (if any, of course), but if Obama can turn out the independents over John McCain and Ron Paul (it's an open primary), she's in trouble. Strong second is all he really needs there; first place means the other states and candidates will start lining up for the anointed. Needless to say, also expect a surge in Obama's SC numbers.

Also expect an uptick for Huckabee in NH, but not remotely significant enough to put him in the race. Romney got 2nd, which is bad, but McCain did pretty shitty. Then again, if the press spins it as a victory for McCain (they do love them some McMaverick), Romney could also be in deep doodoo. McCain appears to have overtaken him in NH, and I know there's no rule against it, but history bears out this little factoid: no GOP candidate has EVER won the nomination without taking at least one of Iowa/New Hampshire. Last time I checked the SC poll numbers, it was Huck/Romney/Thompson with McCain rising fast, and if that continues, there's plenty of time for McCain to take 2nd in SC. Expect Thompson to close up shop after SC, especially if McCain performs well.

Also, Dodd and Biden pack it in tonight. But the real question is, what the hell is Duncan Hunter hanging around for?


grimsaburger said...

You know what just struck me, reading this over at TPM, which mentions what's waiting for the Dem candidate in the way of frothing-at-the-mouth attacks... It seems to me that no matter what kind of racist, xenophobic shit that gets thrown at Obama, he's not only capable of getting through that, I think people will be more likely to defend against that kind of out-and-out racism than, say, a whisper campaign about Edwards' marital fidelity or financial hypocrisy or whatever. Which means that the shit that will get thrown at Obama won't stick. And isn't that a lovely image.

el ranchero said...

I agree with you. This scary-Republicans -will-destroy-your-candidate shtick applies pretty much equally across the board. We've already seen the infectiousness of the financial hypocrisy/girly-man narrative on Edwards; he will always be known, first and foremost, for his hair, both in its $400 haircut and his "Breck girl" primping of it in the viral Youtube video.

And need we even point out the ball-busting, ruthless bitch imagemaking against Clinton? Or the Clintonian conspiratorial talk, the "triangulating," the mannishness (pantsuits, anyone?), and the rehashing of all the ugly rumors from the Clinton Administration years?

I think that guy's position is symptomatic of the fear a lot of Democrats have developed of Republican slime-meisters. Why is your average Piddles J. Democrat, whether voter or congressman or senator, so obsessed with the mean things Republicans will say about them? Do you think Republicans live in perpetual fear of Democratic attacks? Do you think they look for the candidate that that's least offensive to liberals or seculars or less vulnerable to Democratic whisper campaigns? Of course not: they actually look for the candidate most likely to beat the other Republicans that shares their belief system, because they believe in the cogency of their own values and their candidates' abilities to withstand whisper campaigns.

Damnit, grow a pair, people!