Saturday, January 05, 2008

more notes on Iowa: John Edwards

Apparently I forgot to mention, but it should be obvious enough: Edwards is toast. Edwards needed Iowa in a way that not even Obama did, because he isn't ahead anywhere else. "By making a last stand marathon effort and having a 4 year head start, I managed to lose to Barack Obama by a half-point less than Clinton" isn't exactly a convincing statement of viability. He needed to show that a) he can beat Hillary, and b) he's the more "electable" of the two non-Hillaries. He's going to place 3rd in NH, but it's in SC and NV where the Edwards campaign will suffer back-breaking losses. Those are his "last stand" states. He may stick around until super duper Tuesday, though it would only be to spite Obama, and I don't think he'll do that for reasons below.

Edwards does have the opportunity to play kingmaker at this point, however. Chances are that whomever he throws his support to will gain enough support to run the table on the other candidate, and I think it's more than a little significant that his Iowa Caucus night speech began with him saying that "the status quo lost and change won." He could lay the death knell to the Clinton campaign with an endorsement of Obama just before Super Duper Tuesday, after he loses his firewall states.

Lastly is the question of where Edwards goes from here: possible Attorney General nomination?

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