Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Yay Texans!

CNN: Obama won more delegates in Texas than Clinton.
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has won the Texas Democratic caucuses and will get more delegates out of the state than his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, who won the state's primary, according to CNN estimates.
After a comprehensive review of these results, CNN estimates that Obama won more support from Texas caucus-goers than Clinton. Based on the state party's tally, Obama's caucus victory translates into 38 national convention delegates, compared to 29 for Clinton.

And though Clinton won more delegates than Obama in the primary, 65 to 61, Obama's wider delegate margin in the caucuses gives him the overall statewide delegate lead, 99 to 94 — or once superdelegate endorsements are factored in, 109 to 106.

Speaking of the presidential election in Texas, I've been saying for a while that Texas is going to be more competitive than people are expecting. I'm not saying I think the Democrats are going to steal it in '08, but it isn't as red as it's looked the last decade. It's been undergoing a population boom for the last several decades composed mainly of young professionals into Austin and Dallas, and Hispanics into the southern part of the state, two demographics that skew Democratic. This population trend is mirrored in several other southwestern states as well (Nevada, Arizona, California and Colorado), where it has resulted in a bluing effect over the last couple of decades. Bubba Clinton, for instance, carried all of them but Texas at one point or another, as this cool interactive map illustrates.

Furthermore, much of the GOP's gains in the state are exaggerated by temporary circumstances: Texas' extra Republicans in its House delegation can be traced to Tom Delay's mid-decade gerrymandering, and Bush won such huge victories there (he got 61% of the vote in 2004) because he was the former popular governor of the proudest state in the Union.

So imagine my delight when I saw a new SUSA poll showing the Crazy Train beating Barack Obama in Texas... by 1.


Zee said...

I've heard people say that Obama's caucus-winning streak does not speak to his electability because he doesn't win as many primaries (a contention I have a problem with at its base). But even taking it as true, what it says -- especially in Texas -- is that people are seriously motivated to elect him, so much so that they'll spend a perfectly good Tuesday night advocating for him in a public forum. I think that speaks volumes. Go Texans!

Lubbock Left said...

I hate to say this, but it's pointless speculating who won the caucus delegates in Texas until after our State Convention in June -- or at the very least until after the County Conventions on March 29. There are entire counties (rural ones) where no precinct conventions happened. There are precincts in urban counties that did not hold a convention (and whose delegates are, therefore, up for grabs at the County Convention). There are potential parliamentary shenanigans that no one has even considered yet.

I can't wait until the Texas Democratic Party decides to untangle the presidential delegates from the caucus process.