Tuesday, August 29, 2006

poll fun

Here is a fun interactive new poll from WSJ/Zogby. It covers all the races for senate and governor this year.

It also contains a ton of good news. It shows the GOP only holding 4 of the 20 gubernatorial races (a possible Dem pickup of... get this... nine), and while it's more mixed on the Senate it has potentially great news on that front as well.

I wouldn't trust the explanation of the poll's ramifications on the side panel, though, at least for the Senate one. It predicts the Republicans will maintain their majority 52-46, despite the fact that 2 of that 52 includes races not covered by Zogby where the Democratic candidate is consistently beating the Republican (Montana and Rhode Island). Taking those into account would make the numbers 50-49, and with a likely Democratic tide and 4 Republican races within the margin of error, it's hard to say this poll clearly shows a Republican majority in '07.

That simple fact alone is amazing, considering the Senate wasn't even considered in play at the beginning of the year.

To put said blurb's credibility into proper perspective, it also says that Jim Jeffords is expected to caucus with the Democrats. Actually, he's not expected to caucus with anyone, because he's retiring. Bernie Sanders, the Independent leading and projected by everyone to win in that race (also not covered by this poll), however, will.

Now, let's see if I can provide a slightly better blurb:

There are only 3 races where the Dems lead in a GOP seat (again, not including the ones in Montana and Rhode Island), and it shows McCaskill down against Republican Jim Talent in Missouri, but it confirms a poll earlier this week showing Allen losing to Webb in Virginia (a tradeoff for McCaskill, who was leading slightly until recently in other polls). It also shows the Republican leads in Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee whittled down to within the margin of error.

Though it also shows the same number of Dem seats within the margin of error, no polls in a long time have shown any Democrats losing, and even nonpartisan outfits like Cook political report are predicting that the Dems will hold all of their seats due to the almost certain Democratic wave. Also, the close Dem races have been that way pretty much the whole cycle (and, in fact, have generally trended bluer, with the exception of Stabenow) while the closeness of the GOP seats is a new development (Ensign, Kyl, and Allen, for instance, were not considered vulnerable 6 months ago).

Remember, if the Dems win 6, they flip the Senate.

Nota bene: The MT-Sen race, according to Rasmussen, is now tied at 47%, though previous polls showed Tester (the Democrat) up by 7. This was taken before Burns' gaffe about his "little Guatemalan man," though, so I still think this one will go to Tester.


Anonymous said...

I can't wait to see Bernie Sanders in the Senate!

Suzi said...

I agree with the above comment by anonymous