Alright, Hoosiers, make your mamas proud!
My predictions: Indiana looks more like Ohio than any other state. Clinton has played on Hoosiers' fears well, though she's been pretty egregiously craven about it, floating this gas tax holiday foolishness and whatnot. Furthermore, Evan Bayh has been going all out for Clinton, and he's the big dog in Indiana Democratic politics, being a current popular Senator and former popular governor. Obama's got the northwest probably as deep in as South Bend, plus Indianapolis and Bloomington, but every poll shows him capping at around 44%. I think Indiana screws the pooch, 53-47 Clinton.
Also, in the gubernatorial primary, I'm going with Long Thompson over Schellinger by 10. Long Thompson is playing Clinton's gas tax game, and my gut tells me Hoosier Democrats don't pay enough attention to see through the ruse. Clearly, the Clinton and Thompson pollsters feel it, too, or they wouldn't have suggested a position that exposes the candidates as panderers on both the the budget and the environment. Jill also has higher name recognition having already run for virtually every office Indiana has to offer.
In North Carolina, Obama should win out, but it will be closer than it should have been. What can I say? When you're getting tag teamed by the the governor, the Crazy Train, Clinton, and her 527, while the media's replaying Rev. Wright's greatest hits nonstop, it's gonna hold your numbers down a bit. A team of this size demolished Howard Dean's campaign in a couple of weeks. The Tarheel State goes for Barack, 52-48.