Friday, May 07, 2010


With all but 9 seats in, the UK Parliament tally is 302 Tories to 256 Labour to 56 Lib Dems.

It takes 326 seats to form a majority, so the Tories can't do it by themselves, and Labour can't do it even with an (unlikely) Lib Dem coalition. Either Cameron and Clegg will form a Tory/Lib Dem coalition government, or the Tories will run a minority government.

In any case, the most obvious likely consequence of this election has indeed come to pass: the historically long tenure of Tony Blair's New Labour has come to an end. David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister.

Fun Fact: despite the huge increase in support, the Liberal Democrats will finish with fewer seats after this election.

UPDATE: I should clarify. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are not a natural match, and a joint government between them would be a rare sight indeed, from what I understand, much rarer than Labour/Lib Dems as those two parties are ideologically closer (and both are historic nemeses of the Tories). The Conservatives have a much more natural ally in the Irish DUP, the largest and most hardline unionist party in Ulster, but the DUP doesn't have enough seats to put the Tories over 325, either. Besides, imagine the damage that would be done to the peace process in Ireland if the DUP were allowed to form a government in the UK!

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